It's that time of year when we all attempt to curse ourselves with the gift of prophecy!
So here's my five predictions about what TTRPGs will look like in 2025.
1. More Ambitious Physical Projects
With the release of Yazeba's Bed & Breakfast and Triangle Agency, we've seen TTRPGs really make the most of their physical medium as an art object in a way that goes beyond the art in the game. Both of these games have a tactility and physicality that sets them apart from others, whether it's the manipulation of the book itself through stickers and sealed cards in Yazeba's or the Normal Briefcase physical version of Triangle Agency. And both, significantly, have parts that are sectioned off from players at the start of a game, only to be revealed after certain conditions have been met.
Now these aspects aren't breaking new ground, per se (I'm assuming most of you are aware of Invisible Sun's Black Cube and the scroll games Fall of Magic and City of Winter, as well as the existence of the legacy boardgames that pioneered locking off parts of a game for later in the tabletop space), but both of them actually coming out in the same year after spending considerable time in development feels like they're forerunners of a new trend in the TTRPG field.
That said, I hope that the size of these games and the time it took to get them out in physical form gives excited designers some pause. Anything that gates play material away from players is, by necessity, pretty demanding. Demanding of time and attention to unlock those things, demanding of space in a rules book, and demanding of the money it takes to create and purchase those games. These games might be on the leading wave of a trend in games, but I don't think it would take too much for the space to get oversaturated with that kind of play. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this kind of game becomes the storygames version of the fantasy heartbreaker.
2. D&D's Fly-or-Flounder Moment
The more normal expression is "sink or swim," but I'm not kidding myself that D&D or Wizards of the Coast writ large is going away anytime soon. No, instead 2025 is going to be a moment of truth for D&D 2024 with the Monster Manual slated to release on February 18. Finally, all three core books for the not-a-new-edition of D&D will be out, and players and third party publishers alike will start to make the choice of what they're going to do about it. Will they convert to D&D 2024 entirely, buying expensive new physical and digital versions of core books that they kind of already own, or stick with original 5e and run the risk that everyone else will leave them behind?
I don't imagine it will ultimately matter that much to the number of people playing the game, but what could matter is whether the new semi-edition does enough for Wizards of the Coast and Hasbro's bottom line. We're already seeing Magic: The Gathering being milked for all it's worth with the injection of more Universes Beyond sets in 2025 and a potential Commander video game in the works, and D&D cannot be far behind. Hasbro revenue was overall down by 15% despite a 7% increase in WotC's revenue, and there seems to be an overall pivot to a digital strategy with the success of MtG's Arena and $30 million of revenue from Monopoly Go! alone.
All this is to say that D&D is in a precarious position: the development of D&D 2024 must pay off, WotC must continue to make even more money to make up for Hasbro's overall financial situation, and we have yet to see if players are particularly excited about the direction D&D is going. Again, the brand of D&D will continue to make money hand over fist compared to literally every other TTRPG out there, it's just a question of whether that's enough money to sate Hasbro's need for endless growth. If not, that will mark the beginning of a long and tortuous decline as the parent company finds new and innovative ways to make players cough up money to play a game that they like.
3. Backerkit Ascendancy
BackerKit has been giving Kickstarter a run for its money in 2024 and that is likely to continue in 2025. There's more detail in the site's yearly retrospective, but the most salient points are: - Huge campaigns across multiple markets (TTRPGs, board games, publishing, physical toys)
- Explosive growth in new users (70% increase)
- Great success from overtime feature (specifically The Between and Mothership Month)
- Great success from collaborative funding (Goodman Games' Purple Planet collab and the aforementioned Mothership Month)
People, projects, and money are coming to BackerKit and they're innovating to make sure that they all have a reason to stick around. Much like D&D, I don't imagine that Kickstarter is going anywhere anytime soon, but if they're not careful they might find themselves getting left behind.
4. Polarization of Cozy/Intense Games
Someday I will probably write up something about my feelings surrounding the "cozy" genre of games, but suffice it to say for now that it's not really my cup of tea. And that's not to say that super intense games are my favorite thing ever, but I will always admire art that really swings for the fences on something difficult to explore and unpack. But my feelings on the matter don't matter as much as what I'm predicting here: an increase in the number of cozy and intense games due to political uncertainty in the USA and the personal vulnerability brought on by that.
What exactly do I mean by this? Basically that as the USA enters an even more (overtly) fascist period of its politics, people making games are going to react in one of two ways: 1) they'll make and seek out art that is comforting, safe, and escapist (cozy games); 2) they'll say "fuck it" and make and seek out art that is in-your-face, defiant of the increasingly upsetting norm, and challenging to both make and play. Even though my preference is clear from how I opened this section, I want to make clear that I don't consider this a moral choice. It makes complete sense to want to seek respite from a difficult and dangerous everyday life, and making/playing 'intense' games does not make one a better person.
That said, if this polarization does come to pass I anticipate considerable discourse on both sides about the validity of doing one over the other. If you find yourself wanting to contribute to that, here's my advice: find a local community organization to get involved in, be it mutual aid or a hobby group. It's going to do a lot more for you than arguing with strangers online, and you might even find new people to play games with.
5. Pregen Games Galore
Games like the aforementioned Yazeba's Bed & Breakfast and the now-mentioned Eat the Reich and Last Train to Bremen get a lot of mileage out of giving you some characters to play with and telling you to just go nuts with them. They don't include any rules for making your own characters, but for Yazeba's and Last Train it was clear to me when I played them that it wouldn't be all that difficult to figure out how to make some up if you wanted to switch things up (I can't speak for Eat the Reich since I have neither read nor played it), but also there's so much to explore with the provided characters that I don't know how much you would feel the need to make additional ones.
I predict that the success and popularity of these games will inspire people to experiment with making their own pregen characters for their games and overall looking at how to make tighter and more focused game experiences. This prediction is informed by Knight at the Opera's 3-part series on capsule games (published, appropriately enough, 1 year ago today) and inspired by the Dice Exploder Pregen Jam that happened in 2024, something that I didn't participate in but observed as part of the DE community. So on some level this prediction is actually coming a year too late, but I feel like there's momentum with this style of game and we'll see more of them in the coming year.
So that's it!
Those are my 2025 predictions! If I remember, I'll check in at the end of the year and see how right/wrong I was. Until then, keep playing games!
